Europe, 2045: Only the elderly remember the term Balkanization, a once-derogatory word used in the early twenty-first century to describe political fragmentation. European academia now prefers the term The Southeast Asianization of Europe to characterize the continent’s development trajectory over the past decades. The European Union—leaders and historians alike recount this with pride and relief—has withstood the onslaught of right-wing nationalist movements that once demanded disintegration. Instead of dissolution, the EU has transitioned into a looser, more flexible coalition, where individual countries and political parties pursue centrifugal alliances while remaining nominally committed to a shared European identity.

The ideological landscape has shifted dramatically. Fiscal and cultural conservatism have become dominant, shaped by a combination of factors: a series of underwhelming investment cycles, deindustrialization, and an aging population. The economic paradigm, for over a century centered on growth, has pivoted toward how to spend it—an economic philosophy blending post-growth pragmatism, ecological sustainability, and a deep-rooted cultural preference for stability over change. What was previously considered a crisis of stagnation has been rebranded as an opportunity for leisure and cultural preservation.

Europe’s globally acclaimed service industry has flourished, particularly in cultural tourism, effectively transforming the continent into a living museum. Unbusy workers—many of whom transitioned from declining industrial sectors—are now employed to curate and display the European way of life to an ever-growing influx of visitors. Climate change, ironically, has played an unexpected role in Europe’s transformation. Warming temperatures have made even the Nordic countries pleasant year-round, unlocking new economic potential in regions that were once considered harsh and inhospitable. This climatic shift, coupled with a broad embrace of leisurely consumption over production, has led to what some now call “the secret to happiness” in these historically rigid and work-oriented societies.

Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented experiment in regional coordination in the mid-2020s. The fragmented manufacturing hub has since evolved into a highly integrated economic and technological powerhouse. The ASEAN-wide industrial policy has successfully established a fully integrated supply chain in artificial intelligence and green energy technologies, leveraging the region’s rich resources and dynamic workforce. Coordinated investment in infrastructure, research, and innovation has enabled ASEAN nations to negotiate from a position of strength with the US, China, and the European Union, securing crucial technology transfers and securing their role as indispensable players in the global economy.

In parallel with economic integration, a Mandala Passport scheme was introduced, inspired by the historical Southeast Asian system of diffused political authority. Much like the medieval principalities that radiated influence without direct subjugation, the twenty-first-century Mandala system allows citizens to move freely within Southeast Asia, choosing their place of residence and work based on personal preference. Unlike rigid nation-state immigration policies, this scheme ensures that political loyalty is earned rather than imposed; underperforming governments risk losing their workforce to better-managed neighbors. Mobility within the region is facilitated through a credit-based system, where individuals accumulate points through work, social service, and community engagement, enabling them to access cross-border welfare benefits. Initially, this decentralized approach to social security posed logistical challenges, but the implementation of blockchain-based welfare distribution has resolved issues of fairness and transparency, automating the allocation of benefits across borders.

The Nusantara Info Highway, a pan-ASEAN data union, further cements the region’s newfound autonomy. By pooling data resources and collectively negotiating with both the United States and China, ASEAN has secured a significant degree of digital sovereignty, ensuring that regional technological development is dictated by Southeast Asian interests rather than external powers. As Singaporean Kishore Mahbubani once remarked in the 2020s, ASEAN has managed its relation with the ascending power of China quite well, in contrast to how the Europeans managed their relation with the descending power of Russia. This regional self-understanding has proven crucial to its position midcentury. While Europe has found solace in post-industrial leisure, Southeast Asia has embraced the future, redefining global economic and political paradigms on its own terms.